12 - Chapter 12: The Science of Availability
- the availability heuristic — used
to estimate the frequency of a category — e.g. people who diroce after age
60 —how easily instances come to mind, availability
- both S1
and S2 are involved
- not
necessary to hv instances — e.g. XUZONLCJM TAPCERHOB, see easily 2nd set
can construct more words
- substitutes
one q. for another à
systematic errors — many things can make instances easy to think of other
than frequency — e.g. attention-grabbing instances, political sex scandals
— dramatic events, personal exper’s, pictures, vivid examples
- avoiding
these biases is effortful
- fluent
retrieval of instances more impt than no. of instances — e.g. when asked
to produce more argu’ts for a choice, less confident in it ß feeling of having trouble finding instances, exper. diminishing
fluency
- critical
is that the unavail. is unexplained — when given an expl’n (e.g.
backgrd music is making retrieval more difficult), fluency heuristic is
not used as a measure —
- difficulty
(usu. betw. 6 & 12 instances) comes as surprise — S1 sets expect’ns,
perceives surprises
- when
engaged S2 can override the avail. heuristic, take focus off no. of
instances, onto content
- most
susceptible to avail. bias when
- also engaged
in another effortful task
- in good
mood
- knowledgeable
novices on the topic of task (vs. true experts)
- much faith
in intuition
- feeling powerful
- “Because
of the coincidence of two planes crashing last month, she now prefers to
take the train. That’s silly. The risk hasn’t really changed; it is an
availability bias.”
- “He
underestimates the risks of indoor pollution because there are few media
stories on them. That’s an availability effect. He should look at the
statistics.”
- “She has
been watching too many spy movies recently, so she’s seeing conspiracies
everywhere.”
- “The CEO
has had several successes in a row, so failure doesn’t come easily to her
mind. The availability bias is making her overconfident.”
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